` Gary Investing Blog: February 2013

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Wednesday, February 27, 2013

5 Stocks to Watch in March

 
Pandora Media, Inc. (NYSE: P) has found support from centerline of Bband, which is also MA(20). The stock is looking good with rising MACD, golden crossover and fair RSI. Watch for a break above $13.5 for more north action on Pandora.

AFC Enterprises, Inc. (NASDAQ: AFCE) has gained from $26.00 to $31.83 since 2013. AFCE is under consolidation. With the recent move and the great volume, I think AFCE is due to another round of appreciation. Watch for Bullish MACD Crossover.

3D Systems Corp (NYSE: DDD) has gone south from $47.99 to as low as $30.28. It is absolutely a very bubble stock with lots of speculation. Although DDD has almost 8% in two days, do not rush to jump back in due to the significantly low volume.

Zynga, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) To be honest, I am unsatisfied with how much ZNGA gained today after NJ passing online gambling bill. However, after all, we are talking about crossing above 200-day moving average. ZNGA has rising on balance volume and a bullish MACD crossover today. It has tried to break above MA(200) three times in 2 weeks. MA(50) is catching up quickly. I think its outlook is very bullish.

InterDigital, Inc. (NASDAQ: IDCC) As mentioned couple of times before, IDCC tends to jump after touching lower Bband, so it also did this time in the first week of Feb. However, it has been trading side-way within a tight channel. MACD is turning up again and we had a bullish MACD crossover today. I have a target to $50.00 by the end of March for IDCC.


02/27: ZNGA, SPWR, SPY, UVXY, NOK, AAPL, AGNC, BBRY

 American Capital  Agency Corp. (NASDAQ: AGNC) experienced a big appreciation after MA(50) crossing above MA(200) which many traders refer as golden cross. MACD is on its way turning positive. Prices has been trading well within upper half of the Bband since the beginning of 2013. To review other technical signals leading me to trade AGNC, visit my post on 02/11, "ZNGA, HLX, AGNC, BSX, LVLT".

UVXY, one of the most tweeted ticker on StockTwits.com for this week so far. Once again, it is trading to break above MA(50) as we have seen during fiscal cliff talks. UVXY is under huge pressure from profit taking and short traders. However, if we take a look at the chart below, SPY, the overall market is not quite bullish as it has seemed, making VXX and UVXY consider trades.

Remark: Trading with VXX and UVXY involves high risk tolerance. Since the contango nature of its futures options, as well as the overnight risks involved, most traders hold fear index fund and option for less than a week. For me, I only do day trade on VXX and UVXY and I have found Fibonacci Retracement (or Arc) is quite accurate in predicting its movement. I might come back to this topic with proofs later this week.

Moving forward, there are numbers of bearish signal on SPY chart.
1) SAR signals for a new downtrend
2) MACD dropping quickly
3) Price closes (Not touches!!) below lower Bband first time since last Nov.
4) Falling OBV

For hedging purposes, I suggest
1) Do not use full margin to buy stocks
2) Consider shorting SPY or selected stocks that you believe will underperform
3) Hedge with put options or VIX


Nokia (NYSE: NOK) has similar action as in BlackBerry except the situation is slightly worse with a huge red candlestick and quicker falling MACD and RSI. Lumia has out-of-expected sales volume and positive reviews. Lumia 1000 is about to come. I have no idea why it is dropping but I have to stay out of NOK for now as I dont see an end to this depreciation.

Zynga, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) is traded with high volatility for more than a week. Yesterday's afternoon, New Jersey Governor has signed a bill allowing online gambling, which is definitely a good piece of news to ZNGA. However, ZNGA did not show much appreciation which is inconsistent with its action yesterday after Nevada passing a similar bill. Online gambling, as casinos, should be a highly profitable business. I am looking forward to ZNGA making an announcement on its online gambling development or partnership with casinos at Atlantic City.

Technically, ZNGA breaks above MA(200) with huge volume yesterday and a bullish MACD crossover. Also, SAR signals a uptrend. Also $2.84 is a 50% retracement level from $2.09 to $3.75. ZNGA is currently trading at 50cents over its book value.

Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) shows a bearish harami on chart. Also watch out for bearish MACD crossover which it brought massive sell-off previously.

BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) has broken below MA(50) for days after MACD crossed below zero. The trend is very unclear to me and I suggest you to stay out of it for now until further confirmation.

I have sold all my shares in SunPower Corp (NASDAQ: NASDAQ: SPWR) after it breaking below a flag pattern. SAR signals for a downtrend. MACD falling quickly. I would evaluate the technicals again when SPWR pulls back to $9.12.

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Is This The Chart That Everyone Is Concerned About?

We have seen this all before...


...it's never different this time. Of course, you should buy the dip; you invest for the long-term, right? VIX, schmix; Credit, schmedit; Gas prices, schmices; Macro, schmacro...

The last few times that VIX has seen such a 4-day low-to-high risk-flare were extremely significant events...


Credit markets have been flashing red for a month...


and we've seen that before too...


And we've seen what the catalyst for an equity rerating is before...


Macro seems to be sending clear signals too... that we've seen before...


But apart from that...BTFD (or in Abe's case STFR)

Charts: Bloomberg, Capital Context, and Goldman Sachs

Article From Zero Hedge

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

2/20: ZNGA, GEVO, IDCC, APP, DDD, SPWR

 American Apparel, Inc. (AMEX: APP) is not showing a good picture here. Last time it had a bearish MACD cross-below, APP got beaten up from $1.700 to as low as $0.834. If you take a look at previous MACD crossover, MACD is actually a pretty accurate indicator of both the upcoming uptrend and downtrend. APP is under a critical moment right now as it is trading around the centerline of Bollinger Band. I think a close below the centerline of Bband would be enough confirmation for a coming downtrend.

Gevo Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) has been trading within the upper half of Bband since the beginning of 2013. GEVO has pulled back to $2.37 after touching $2.75 where the last gap in September ends. I remain bullish on GEVO until it crosses below $2.37.

3D Systems Corp. (NYSE: DDD) is testifying the validity of the support from MA(50). Unless the stock closes below MA(50) significantly, I remain bullish on DDD.

InterDigital Inc. (NASDAQ: IDCC) As I have mentioned on Feb 13, IDCC usually jumps right back to upper Bband after touching lower one. IDCC is on its way there since last week and now almost there. There is a bullish MACD crossover today and I suspect there will be a big move very soon. I long IDCC since $43.00 and stop just below $42.50

Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) If we neglect the outlier earlier last week, ZNGA seems to be forming a flag pattern with decreasing volume. RSI turned around and is pointing up now. Watch for a break above $3.3 as a signal for continuation of uptrend. I target $4.2 after breakout. If you long ZNGA right now, consider a stop below $3.0 or buying put options.

SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) has jumped more than 33% since first signaled it as a great buying opportunity. It was trading at $9.91 when I mentioned it last week. Again, I have a target of $18.00. The picture is getting even better as volume confirms the big move on price. A bullback to $12.10 would be a very sweet level to go long and add positions.

Friday, February 15, 2013

02/14: ZNGA, BBRY, ADUS, SPWR

Told you SPWR was one of my most confident picks yesterday.  Let's get on the boat and let it roll. SPWR jumped 22% today and still looking green in after hours. Solar stocks are running higher again, and especially SPWR. Congratulations for those who bought SPWR.

Addus HomeCare Corp. (NASDAQ: ADUS) breaks above $9.05 neckline, closing at $9.23 yesterday. ADUS first pulled back to $9.00 in today's morning session, then quickly reached as high as $9.61 and closed at $9.40 with great volume. I have a target of $11.00 based on previous pullbacks and breakouts.

 BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) as mentioned in yesterday's post too, BBRY is looking great if you are bullish on its outlook. In fact, I tweeted on Twitter and StockTwits to my followers right after BBRY turning green from red with great volume quickly after touching $13.00, telling us the uptrend still holds. We should expect BBRY running up back to $17.22 in a short period of time.

Zynga, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) reached 50% retracement and showed some green action, although with just little volume. I expect ZNGA will break above 200(MA) eventually as it is growing its business to casino business and it still has a reasonable PE ratio with a low debt ratio. I sold half my shares when it reached $3.70 and I will put my funds back in if ZNGA trades above $3.3 tomorrow.

Thank you for reading

Gary Investing Blog

In the coming two weeks, I will be updating my blog less frequently because I would like to focus on getting more followers and audience on Twitter.

Please follow my Twitter: @GaryLee_HK

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

02/13: DPS, SPWR, OVTI, IDCC, BBRY, FB

Note: I am comparably more confident on SPWR and IDCC among others at the moment.

Facebook, Inc (NASDAQ: FB) fell below ascending triangle. Bearish MACD crossdown. Volume are generally more on "red" days. Be aware. My shares stopped out at $27.80 already.

InterDigital Inc. (NASDAQ: IDCC) As mentioned in my post "Stocks to invest in 2013", IDCC tends jump back up quickly in days after touching the lower Bband. Yesterday, IDCC touched lower band again and we are lucky enough to see a pretty strong move today confirming my intuition. IDCC has up 2.71% today and I am aiming for at least $47.00. After all, IDCC had a strong uptrend last year and I don't see signs for reversal. Stop around $42.00 would be sufficient.

OmniVision Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: OVTI) It has been a while since I last mentioned this stock. Now, OVTI is closing around a major resistance. Get reader for a break above $16.15 which I believe would eventually send this stock to $18.00 in 1-2 months.

BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) has pulled back from $17.22 to $13.99 in 4 trading days. I am not a big fan of BlackBerry. But if you are bullish on BBRY, you may consider adding shares now since It has pulled back to MA(50), a major support.

SunPower Corp. (NASDAQ: SPWR) breaks above a flag last week and is heading quickly to the North. Bullish MACD Crossover. Some sign of exhaustion as candlesticks are getting shorter. But extending the gain before the flag pattern to the breakout point ($4.00 to $9.12), I have a target of at least $18.00 which is another 100% gain.

Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, Inc (NYSE: DPS) breaks below the channel significantly with huge volume after announcing disappointing earnings report. I smell dead over DPS. I don't recommend buying for a bounce back.

I also offer updates and trade ideas on Twitter. To get real time tweets, please follow me @GaryLee_HK

Thank you for visiting,

Gary Investing Blog

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

02/11: AAPL, BBRY, FSLR

 I would not be surprise to see BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) pulling back to $14.00 level. But, please get ready for bullish MACD crossover. It seems that the uptrend is definitive.

 Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: APPL) has been bouncing back all the way to $479.00. I do not think AAPL will get over $500.00 which happens to the a downtrend trendline. Bband are trending downwards. RSI is approaching a significant resistance level, 50-ish. I also see sign of exhaustion as volume is decreasing slowly with shorter candlestick body. Again, I started short on AAPL since it was trading at $600.00 and I suggest a stop order just above MA(50), $507.29. Here is the link to the post I recommended my followers to short AAPL back in December. 

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Congratulations for those who added shares while FSLR was pulling back. FSLR has found support, once again, from its uptrend. The stock run up 6.45% after a bullish MACD crossover took place last Friday, touching the upper band today, signaling for a trend continuation and massive buying power. There is no divergence from On Balance Volume. 

Monday, February 11, 2013

02/11: ZNGA, HLX, AGNC, BSX, LVLT


Zynga, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) is definitely one of my best picks for 2013 so far. It has been up for more than 50% since I start giving a "buy" signal for ZNGA.  True, ZNGA has been running up too quickly recently. But not to mentioned about a reversal, I even seriously doubt it is going to pullback significantly. RSI reaching oversold level does not necessarily constitute a pullback, it could be a sideway action, or even more buying power. If you are really worried on ZNGA, I suggest you to buy a put option. This way you can have an insured selling price better than a stop order. The benefit is that you can keep ZNGA in your portfolio and let it roll, while don't need to worry on a significant drop. 

 Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (NYSE: HLX) is a strong stock been going up crazily. I dont look for a reversal but I think it has the potential pull back to at least $22.00 level, giving us a decent level to go long. Keep HLX on your watchlist. HLX is also a good example to prove high RSI reading does not necessarily stop the uptrend. Therefore, I think ZNGA still has a long way to go!

After American Capital Agency Corp. (NASDAQ: AGNC) hits the MA(200), as well as reaching dividend yield of 16% on Thursday, AGNC gained over 3% on Friday. It was a huge handlestick and very notable since it happened right after AGNC touching MA(200), forming a definitive uptrend. The stock has reversed its downtrend since breaking above in mid-Dec-2012. Now, we have the confirmation !!! Let's get on the boat!!

Other bullish indicators:
1) Golden cross is taking place soon.
2) Bullish MACD crossover is coming
3) Friday's candlestick touches upper Bband, which signals for a continuation on the recent uptrend.
4) MACD Signal line above zero first time since last Sept

 Another stock which has been ballooning, Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE: BSX) is forming a flag pattern, with decreasing volume along the formation. If BSX breaks above $7.8 tomorrow, it could send the stock to $8.5 in a few days. Put BSX on your radar.

Level 3 Communications, Inc. (NYSE: LVLT) is coming close to an end of an inverted head and shoulder pattern. LVLT has been traded flat since 2013. Bullish MACD crossover should take place in less than 3 trading days. Golden Cross 2 weeks ago. Look for a breakout above $25.00 if you wish to long LVLT.

Friday, February 8, 2013

02/07: YOKU, APP, ZNGA, CECO

Youku Tudou, Inc. (NYSE: YOKU). It is sweet to see that YOKU is falling with very light volume and trough did not touch the lower Bband. I think the uptrend will continue to be strong and give YOKU a lot of appreciation in no time. I expect to see a run up to at least $26.00 by the end of this month.

American Apparel, Inc. (AMEX: APP) We are experiencing a very similar price action as we have seen Q3 2012 on APP right now. Compared the charts in the two squares I have highlighted. They really look very similar. My short term target for APP is $1.70. Plus, given the fact that retailers are reporting beating earnings the past several weeks, I certainly hope to see a strong earning report from APP as well.

Career Education Corp. (NASDAQ: CECO) broken above its downtrend and a triangle pattern for the first time since last August. Today's volume is just above all trading days in 2013 so far. Given the rapid rising RSI level, I would recommend you all to be patient and re-evaluate CECO when there is a pullback to $3.50.

Zynga, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) After yesterday's break-above its upwards channel, ZNGA pulled back to $2.86 this morning, then jumped to $3.09 rapidly. This proves that the break-above is valid and the buying power is very strong. ZNGA has been trading with increasing volume lately. Once again, I think institutional investors are piling up their shares on FB and ZNGA. It is still a great level for entry.

Thank you for visiting.

Gary Investing Blog

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

02/06: DDD, BBRY, NOK, SLW, ZNGA


 3D Systems Corp. (NYSE: DDD) rises 3% more in after-hours, closing at $64.46. Told you uptrend would be coming back very soon. I have also mentioned its validity of support from MA(50) for several time on Twitter. It is still a good level to initiate or add positions on $DDD.

BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) rises from $12.15 to $16.02 in three days after the stock touching MA(50). MACD is recovering very quickly. RSI is still at reasonable level. No negative divergence on MACD/RSI/Volume. Seems it would be a safe ride up until $18.32 in the coming week(s).

Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) Compared with BlackBerry, Nokia did not bounce back after breaking below MA(50). Bearish MACD Crossover. However, RSI did not fall below 40-level, which means there is not yet a signal for downtrend in RSI. The volume is dropping quickly as we have seen in BBRY's first week of trading, before its explosion. I expect the same to take place on NOK as on BBRY. I am still bullish on NOK until lit breaks below $3.67. I think we just have to be patient.

 Silver Wheaton Corporation (NYSE: SLW) is closing around the upper end of the downwards channel. Bullish MACD crossover. Centerline could cross above 0 anytime soon. However, without a significant break above $36.50, I think SLW would trade back down to $32.00 soon.

Zynga, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) even rises more than 6% in after hours, closing at $2.92, which still has some room until reaching upper end of the channel ($3.10) after Merrill upgrades $ZNGA to buy. Let's get on the boat and trade.

Thank you for visiting,

Gary Investing Blog

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