` Gary Investing Blog: December 2012

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Monday, December 31, 2012

Happy New Year

I wish everyone healthy and good luck in trading.


Sunday, December 30, 2012

3 Trading Ideas Before 2013: IDCC, COH, SINA

InterDigital, Inc (NASDAQ: IDCC) has pulled-back to its uptrend and MA(50) level. Slow STO is showing oversold signal while RSI is still above the support area (40). IDCC has been in a strong uptrend since this June and rarely closes below MA(50). MA(200) is showing a bottoming pattern. Entry at this price level is a bargain of IDCC's strong uptrend. Stop around $38.00.

SINA.com (NASDAQ: SINA) has broken above its downtrend earlier this month and pulled back a little bit to test its validity of a new trend. A new support found on $46.00. I would go long when SINA crossed above MA(50) and would have a stop order at $46.00.

Coach, Inc. (NYSE: COH) has been trading in $52.5-$63 range since mid-June. COH is now trading at the lower range at $53.88. Slow STO is showing oversold signal. Last Friday's close is a doji on chart, which is a short term reversal pattern. If going long at this level, make a stop at around $52.00.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

4 Trades Before Fiscal Cliff Deal: DDD, UVXY, NVDA, FB

3D Systems Corp. (NYSE: DDD) has found support from $50.00, showing an accelerating uptrend. From the behavior of DDD since October, whenever it breaks a new high, it experiences a significant correction/pull back. It would not be surprising to see DDD pullback to MA(50). But I think the current price is already a good bargain to entry. DDD has a strong uptrend and good prospective for its future. Given the volatility of this stock, I do not recommend using a close stop order. Stop at MA(200) just for "in case".

Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) has once again broken its support. Earlier this month, FB has filled the gap but failed to break above $28 support level. Now, it has broken below $27 support, going back to gap's area. CMF is about to cross below zero. I think Facebook is dropping to $24.00 or around MA(50) is no time. Before than, I do not see it as a good chart and great price to go long. Suggestion: wait until the pullback ends.

NVDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) broke its downtrend earlier this month but has been experiencing continuous resistance since then. Despite of the bearish MACD crossover, it has found support from $12.00. As long as it closes above $12.00, I am still bullish on NVDIA. But we are close to $12.00, keep an eye on it.

ProShares Ultra VIX Short-term Future ETF (NYSE: UVXY) is showing a shooting star/ gravestone doji on chart at close after I tweeted at UVXY's HOD that it was great time to go short. I got a pretty decent 10% profit in just one day. Since shooting star is a reversal pattern, I think UVXY will tank back to $18.00 level very soon. It makes very much sense since I strongly believe there will be a fiscal cliff deal before New Year.

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

5 Stocks to Trade in 2013: AAPL, AMZN, WAC, ZIP, ZNGA

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Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has continued its downtrend after the death cross and negative CMF crossover. Currently, Apple is approaching its major support at $500. I do not suggest to long Apple just because it is fundamentally cheap. On technical point of view, it is undergoing Elliot Wave C, which is about 1/3 longer and more price depreciation than Elliot Wave A. Given that Wave A drops from $700 to $533 ($167 drops), technically speaking Wave C could send Apple to $400 in 2013.

Amazon, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) After quickly rising from $220 to $263.11, it dropped 3.86% today. It is a possible double top on chart but I would not initial a short position until it crosses below MA(50) again. After break below MA(50), I will have a short term target of $218.18 until further confirmation by then. Bearish MACD crossover. CMF is about to cross below zero. RSI crossed below 50 centerline. Amazon's chart is giving me a very bearish impression. If going short, stop at around $260.00.

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Walter Investment Management Corp. (NYSE: WAC) I told you on Dec 21st about the exhaustion showing on WAC and its possible head and shoulder pattern on chart. I believe the H&S pattern is fully formed. WAC is temporarily showing support from MA(50) but I think it will eventually breaks below given that bearish MACD crossover, RSI crossing below 50 level and the significantly volume in the recent 5 trading days. Giving the short selling restriction, any bounce back would be a great opportunity to go short WAC. Stop at around $46.00.

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Zippcar, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZIP) is showing a bullish ascending triangle on chart with decreasing volume along the formation. CMF crossed above zero. MA(200) is bottoming and MA(50) is picking up quickly. If using closing prices to draw the triangle's neckline, ZIP broke above the pattern technically. However to be safe, I suggest setting an entry order at $8.9 (or even safer at $9.0). A break above $9.0 would easily send the stock to $10.00 level. Keep an eye on Zippcar, Inc.

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Zynga, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) has closed above MA(50) yesterday and the whole candlestick is above MA(50). Connecting the higher lows gives us a definite short term uptrend and a great level to entry NOW. MA(50) is showing saucer bottom. Stop at around $2.25.

Thank you for reading,

Gary Lee
Twitter

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Some Trading Ideas on Christmas Day

I wish everybody has a Merry Christmas. As I mentioned, I am currently in Hong Kong but I will continue updating this blog. 

Accelrys Inc. (NASDAQ: ACCL) have failed to break a new high. As long as it's trading above $8.45,  the outlook is still bullish. However, due to the failure in breaking out, I suppose a correction to MA(50) is coming. Healthy MACD and No overbought level on RSI.

Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLK) is trading around the lower band of a rising channel and shows support from MA(50). I always consider RSI consistently finds support around 50 level a bullish sign. Consider long in this ETF if we see green candlestick on the 26th.

Tellabs, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLAB), my best-performing picks for this month, has shown price appreciation (after adjustment for $1 dividend). 24th's candlestick is entirely above MA(50). Despite short trading hours, it traded with pretty great volume. It also makes a new high since Oct and touches the upper Bollinger band again. I suggest a new round of bullish action is due to come in no time. Keep an eye on this stock. It has great fundamentals. 

More stock picks to come tonight.

Thank you for visiting,

Gary Lee
Twitter: GaryLee_HK

Sunday, December 23, 2012

4 Stocks to Trade for the January Effect

Capture the January Effect with holding Stocks with Strong Uptrend before 2013 ends.

The "January Effect" is the averagely overall good performance of stocks in the month of January. Buying stocks with strong uptrend is a good way to capture the January boost in 2013. Reminder: Don't hope for a down around of a stock just because of January Effect. A big breakdown could negate the possibility of January Effect.

 HDFC Bank Ltd. (NYSE: HDB) has shown a strong up trend since June. Now, the stock is trading within the uptrend channel and moving towards support at around $40.27. My target is $45 before February 2013.   Even a close below $40.00 is yet not the perfect sell signal. I would put a stop at $37.00 for a stock with strong uptrend like this.

Lions Gate Entertainment Group. (NYSE: LGF) started an uptrend after good reviews of the movie "Hunger Game." It is also closing around support in the channel. MACD above to cross signal line. As long as it stays above last month's low of $14.5, uptrend still enacts and there is a big room to capture profits as we have a wide channel on chart.

Pharmacyclics, Inc. (NASDAQ: PCYC) shows support from MA(50) and the neckline. Friday's candlestick is a hammer on chart, which is an important signal for reversal. Once again, I think the current trading price of PCYC is a great opportunity for entry.




Visa, Inc. (NYSE: V) has been in a strong uptrend since June with a fairly tight channel. Technically, Visa is under a strong uptrend no matter January effect occurs or not. But if it does, I could get to $165 region easily.


S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) The index has been doing well mid-week on positive economic data but fell sharply due to failure to reach an agreement on fiscal cliff solution. If there is no agreement in the coming 8 days, Jan. 1, 2013 tax hike could send the U.S. back into recession. I believe an agreement would eventually come. No one wants to take blame on sending the U.S. into recession again.

Favorite Tweets / Successful picks
Told you on $RIMM  Mentioned: http://stks.co/fHtT 
Told you on $WAC. dropping 4.77% so far. Mentioned: http://stks.co/bGpb Bearish

Friday, December 21, 2012

5 Stocks to Watch: APP, TLAB, TROX, WAC, ZNGA

Notice: 
I will be traveling to Hong Kong from Dec 24 to Jan 24. I might be less active on Twitter due to the 12-hour time difference. I will keep positing at least 3 stock picks every day, but probably at some very weird time, say 4am in the morning. I suggest you to follow me both on Twitter, and most importantly, Daily Newsletter (submit your email on the right) so that you don't miss out any posts. Newsletter are delivered 2 hours before opening bell rings.

Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) is showing support from MA(50). The candlestick is getting smaller and smaller until today it widened yet traded with very little volume. I think it is time for reversing the downward movement. Tomorrow, should we see a green candlesticks, I am confident that the stock we be trading at $2.73 again in no time. 


American Apparel Inc. (AMEX: APP) is back again. Today's rise breaks above the channel formed since this month. The stock is trying to get back above MA(200) now. The action on MA(50) is interesting too. It seems that it might not crossover with MA(200). CMF crossed above zero. Closing above 1.04 could be great entry. Before that, the chart is still have bearish written over it.
P.S.: Trading AMEX stocks use up quite a lot of margin buying power.

 Tellabs, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLAB) getting close to special dividends now. TLAB jumped 3% today and crossed above MA(200). MACD is holding up quite well. Both Slow STO and RSI make lows above 50 level, which I usually find it quite useful to predict action. I still long TLAB.

Tronox Inc. (NYSE: TROX) is showing some correction after the jump three days ago, yet, holding above MA(50). BBands widening and yesterday closing price did not leave upper band, which still give bullish sign to the stock. MACD crossed above zero yesterday.

Walter Investment Management Corp. (AMEX: WAC) traded as low as $41.40 today but closes at $44.48, which is an inverted hammer and suppose to be a good sign. However, due to the high volume and the point where it shows up, I think it is more like a head and shoulder pattern. I think a close below MA(50) will send the stock into freefall. Keep it on your radar.

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

12/19: FSLR, INTC, CECO, YOKU, SODA, JDSU

 First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Since I mentioned FSLR earlier this month about its breakout of ascending triangle, it has already been appreciated more than 10%. Now, I think there is an exhaustion because prices are starting to leave upper Bband with smaller and smaller volume. And take a look when last time MACD was at such high level, the stock prices first started with leaving upper Bband then with having a huge drop. Yup. Therefore, I think if you long FLSR, you should liquidate partial of your positions. P.S. RSI at overbought level and MACD histogram is falling.
Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) has gained a lot of message volume on Twitter and Stocktwits for a reason. After a breakout of its downtrend last week, INTC has validated its new support at $20.30. MACD crossed above zero two days ago. Today, INTC also closes above MA(50). I think INTC is a good bottom play candidate. OBV implied a prices around $22.00 with this level of cumulative volume. No overbought signal on RSI so far. Either set your stop slightly below MA(50) or $20.30.

 SodaStream International Ltd. (NASDAQ: SODA) breaks and closely slightly above $44.50, which makes an inverted head and shoulders fully formed. What for high RSI and low volume thou. I think tomorrow and the day after would be very important for the long term setup of SODA's technicals.

 Yoku Tudou, Inc (NYSE: YOKU) holds up nicely above MA(50). MACD is recovering very quickly and about to cross zero from below. The level of OBV is at a new high level but stock price is not. I consider it as positive divergence. I would long YOKU with a stop at $19.00.

 Career Education Corp. (NASDAQ: CECO) has been recovering from its low ($2.51) to $3.38. The price action has been following the upper Bband nicely but with wider candlestick's body. However, it holds well above MA(50) which is a good thing. Therefore, I think MA(50) is a good level for entry. CECO up 4.7% in after hours trading session.

NASDAQ: JDSU is approaching $13.60 neckline but volume is decreasing. I think there could be a double top more than a breakout coming. RSI at overbought level. Keep your eyes on JDSU also.

Thank you for visiting Gary Investing Blog 

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

12/18: DDD, CECO, AAPL, S, NOK, ARNA

 Arena Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: ARNA) breaks above its widget / asymmetric triangle. Volume decreases during the formation of the pattern and it is now picking up. On watch for big move. I think its uptrend will be continuing very soon. If you long ARNA now, I suggest stop at $8.77.

 Nokia Corp (NYSE: NOK) is trying to reach major resistance at $4.60. MACD +ve. I have mentioned why I am bullish on this stock in my previous posts. I mention it again today because I have saw a tweet on stocktwits that suggest the action on NOK now is similar to Sprint's from $2 to $5. I have attached Sprint chart below for you to review. I don't see much similarity. But I definitely see a bottom formation on NOK and I have a short term target of $5.00

(See Above)

Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is recovering very least volume. MACD still falling. Notice that despite the little bounce back, RSI recovers to 42.40 which is not a good sign as most downtrend find resistance when RSI reach 50.00. I remain bearish and I still short AAPL.

3D System Corp. (NYSE: DDD) has made a new 52w high today. Up 7.21%. Huge jump. I have liquidated half of my positions because previous breakout has dropped significantly immediately. I sold my shares so that I can get on the boat again on a discounted price. In the long run, I think DDD uptrend is very very strong and also a interesting industry with great potential to invest in.

Career Education Corp (NASDAQ: CECO) jumped 14% during after hours due to several new service contracts.I think it could be an good bottom play candidate. However, the technicals are not good enough in my eyes.

Updated list of picks and corresponding performance of Dec

Thank you for visiting Gary Investing Blog

Monday, December 17, 2012

12/17: BAC, DDD, GOOG, SKYW, NOK, RIMM

 Told you yesterday to watch a break above $10.70 which could send the stock to $11.00 quickly. It came true and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) actually ran up to exactly $11.00. There might be some consolidation coming and I do NOT suggest to take a long position and catch the train now due to 74.34 reading on RSI. If you already long this stock, stop at $10.35.

3D Systems Corp. (NYSE: DDD) is one of my all time favorite stocks besides IDCC, SSYS. I have been mentioning this stock since the summer. I also signaled my followers to trade its pullback when it is trading at $41.00. Click to see all my posts on DDD. Right now both Bbands are upward sloping and DDD up trend is accelerating with higher lows. Watch for a breakout at $49.35 which could send the stock to $55.00 in no time according its behavior when breaking above psychological resistance in the past.

 Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) breaks above a bull flag today with highest volume in 7 trading days. MA(50) is about to cross MA(200) from below. My short term target on NOK is $4.20. Stop at $3.6.

 Things just cant get any better. I have mentioned SkyWest, Inc (NASDAQ: SKYW) on 12/10 (Click to open in new tab) that it is forming a huge ascending triangle. Today, it breaks above the pattern with huge volume. A/D is upticking since Nov despite of little price actions. MACD centerline held my pretty well above 0 benchmark. My short term target on SKYW is $13.50, to be safe. Stop at $11.33. 1:2 risk-reward ratio, a very nice breakout candidate.

Google, Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) Again!!! Inverted head and shoulder on chart. MACD Centerline crossed above zero benchmark two weeks ago. Told you to purchased yesterday when it is trading around the neckline. The pattern is confirmed and filly formed. I am bullish and have a short term target of $740. Stop at $680. I think it eventually can get to $780 in 1-2 months.

Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) dropped slightly today. I think it can pullback to $12.5 before more appreciation. I don't suggest to take long position now. RSI is too high.

Other noticeable Tweets today:
$INTC double Doji on daily chart.
$AMR How far could it go??
uhoh  is really not looking nice now.

I suggest readers to follow me on Twitter to get real-time updates and signals on breakout and various different pattern trading. https://twitter.com/GaryLee_HK

Sunday, December 16, 2012

12/16: AAPL, GOOG, BAC, FB

(Click to enlarge charts)

Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) I know Apple has a lot of cash and good fundamentals but potential growth in the future accounts for the most under DCF, Gordon and various different models. Obviously, there is fear that Apple will be or even is ALREADY experiencing deteriorating growth. Many companies are now cutting estimates on its Q4 EPS projection. AAPL is now trading with roughly 3x P/B ratio and 11x PE ratio. Some say it is a good bargain but I think chart never lies. On Friday, Apple has broken below its long term WEEKLY uptrend and kept trading below it for the whole trading day. Centerline of MACD crossed below 0 last month. Hey! It's a weekly chart crossing below. I don't think it is that much of a good thing, neither a good timing for fundamentalist to entry now! Plus, it is now trading below weekly MA(50). I still short APPL and has a new target of $450 before 2013.

 Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) Thursday's open broke above the inverted head and shoulder pattern significant. However, thanks to the bears, Google has been down significantly but still trading just above the $700.00 neckline. I think it is a good entry level with a stop around $670 (first shoulder). Both upper and lower Bbands are upward sloping, as well as both MACD centerline and signal line. Slow STO and RSI confirm the trend. No negative divergence is found on charts.

Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC) is under consolidation and accumulation. Similar pattern is found in November right before last breakout took place. A break above $10.710 could trigger a strong move to $11.00 quickly.

Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) broke below the ascending triangle (or flag) on Friday and MACD crossed below. However, the steep upward sloping On Balance Volume amid the tight range of price action shows the stock is under accumulation and Friday's break-below might be just because of bad sentiment as insider's sales on FB stocks. I think a stock with gap filled, a triple bottom pattern and an upward sloping MA(50) should not be reversing that soon. At least, I think it won't get below $25, where the gap began again. I remains bullish on Facebook based on its technicals.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

12/13: AAPL, PCYC, RIMM, DAL

Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is trading really close to its long term uptrend on the weekly chart. As I mentioned several times, I think AAPL is now under Elliot Wave C (longest downwards move), crossing the the uptrend I have drawn might send the stock to $500 quickly.  MACD and OBV seem to confirm the downtrend. No oversold signal so far.

NASDAQ: PCYC. I have mentioned it yesterday that pulling back to the neckline is a good entry level. Today's candlestick is close enough to a "doji". I think we should see a big move upwards soon. I am long at $63 with a tight stop order at $61.00

 Research in Motion, Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) has been going up quickly this week despite extremely overbought level on RSI and Slow STO. I generally don't like white solders with increasing volume and high RSI reading as it gives a impression to me that the stock is at market top (continuously overbought with too optimistic sentiment) I am still waiting a pullback to $12.30 for entry.

Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL) breaks its asymmetric triangle on its WEEKLY chart today with great volume as company says it foresees increasing profits next year. MACD lines crossing above. Long setup here.

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