` Gary Investing Blog: September 2012

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Saturday, September 29, 2012

Weekly Summary on U.S. Economy

High Importance:

New Home Sales - prior revised 374k/ consensus 380k/ actual 373k
Durable Goods New Orders - prior revised 3.3%/ consensus -5.0%/ actual 13.2%
GDP - prior 1.7%/ consensus 1.7%/ actual 1.3%
Jobless Claims - prior 382k/ revised 385k/ consensus 376k/ actual 359k/ change -26k/ 4w ma 374.0
Personal Income -

Important for Next week:
Monday, Oct 1: ISM Mfg Index
Wednesday, Oct 3: ISM Non-Mfg Index
Thursday, Oct 4: Weekly Jobless Claims
Friday, Oct 5: Employment Situation

Friday, September 28, 2012

Sept 18: 2 raising IPOs with unlimited potential: GMED, ELOQ


Eloqua Inc. (NASDAQ: ELOQ) As you may know, I really like using bband. This stock, once again, follow bband trends very nicely. After today correction (considering the body of today's candlestick is inside yesterday's one), I wish to see some consolidation on the stock. Any breakout above the all time high would be a good entry of the stock.


Globus Medical (NYSE: GMED) has got its first pre-market approval (PMA) from FDA. The stock grow 7.6% with huge volume. MACD seems to be turning around. Price is touching upper bband.  RSI back to overbought level thou. However, it does not mean the stock will drop in the short future. From Vivus (VVUS) and once-popular Arena Pharmaceutical (ARNA), after medical companies get their preliminary approval, the stocks usually run for a while, then drop after final FDA approval. I hope to see GMED would perform in a similar way.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Sept 27: IDCC, FB, LGF


InterDigital, Inc (NASDAQ: IDCC) I want to cover on IDCC  again because I am highly bullish on this stock. There is a run with significantly higher volume after the announcement that it is added to S&P400. Chaikin Money Flow Index turned positive. MACD is about to have a positive crossover, 50day MA is about to crossed 200day MA from below, which some consider a golden cross. The price touches upper band of B-Band again. On Balance Volume confirms the move. RSI is making higher lows and hold well above 50.

Fundamentally, stock managers, ETFs will need to purchase a great amount of the stock to balance/track the index (SP400).

According to Bloomberg, IDCC major customers include Samsung (37% of rev), RIMM (17%), HTC Corp (11%), AAPL (4.38%), Hitachi (3.48%), Quanta Computer (2.80%) and Ericsson (1%). Focus: SAMSUNG!!


Liongate Entertainment Corp (NYSE:LGF) We are looking at a longer term chart here, a weekly candlestick. After the bloom due to strong box office of Hunger Game in March, LGF has been forming a "cup and handle" chart with a neckline of $16. However, On Balance Volume is not confirming the price. However, breakout of $16 would make the stock a good candidate to trade with.


Facebook, Inc (NASDAQ: FB) It is showing a textbook-so-called "possible" head and shoulder pattern with a neckline around $23.5 here. While MACD remains positive and OBV confirming, the price has found supper from 20day SMA after double the upper band of Bollinger band. With the fact that it is still trading below 50day SMA and the hard-to-prove fundamentals and business models of Facebook, I would suggest trading it after the breakout. Without a breakout, the pattern, at least "possible" pattern, means nothing at all.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Sept 26: Today Focus: IDCC

InterDigital (NASDAQ: IDCC) after adding to S&P mid-cap 400, today jumped 7.12% to $35.34. It does not only mean IDCC is valued as a company with fundamental by Standard & Poors. I also confirm the uptrend since Mid-June. Now the closing price crossed above 200day MA (buy signal) and Exponential MA within the BBands. I am very bullish on this stock

Thursday: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Friday: Spain's banks stress test results

Sept 26: SPY, S, GRPN, DDD, IDCC


Sprint (NYSE: S) has been in a uptrend for a while. Although there is an almost-3% drop today, the body of the candlestick is still touching the upper band of BBand, which means buy signal is still entailed. There is a cup and handle pattern with a breakout. A pullback like today is normal considering Slow STO is at overbought level.



S&P500 Index: Even though, we have experienced several red trading days, I remain bullish on the outlook, at least technically. First of all, SPY is still closing above the exponential moving average in the middle of BBand. Second,  it still closes above 141, the breakout level.

Updates to stocks I have mentioned before:
Groupon (GRPN) has dropped 7.21% with increasing short ratio at 10.48%
3D System (DDD) has dropped 4.02% after morning's gaining. It now has a short ratio of over 20%. I think it is a very good candidate for short squeeze speculation.
InterDigital (IDCC): As mentioned yesterday, it finds strong support from its 200 day moving average. It now has a short ratio of 15%. A good candidate for short squeeze too. However, it has closed below 200 day moving average today with less than average volume. 


Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Sept 25: Today's Economic Indicator

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which covers home prices in 20 cities, showed an adjusted 0.4% monthly gain today. This is the sixth straight monthly increase for the adjusted index although it is the slowest gain since February. Stay tuned for next month's announcement to see if the trend is going to continue.

FHFA House Price Index also gained 0.2% after rising 0.6% in June.

Consumer Confidence rose strongly to above 70 level in September after August upwardly revised 61.3. This shows there is a heavier weight on optimists than pessimists. This could bring strong sale in the upcoming holiday shopping season.

State Street Investor Confidence Index fell from prior revised 91.0 to 86.9, which is well below pre-defined 100 breakeven point.
State Street ICI measures confidence not by survey, but the changes in investor holdings of equities. It is said to give more accurate and more coincidence index for investor confidence.

Monday, September 24, 2012

Sept 24 watchlist: IDCC, GRPN, SIRI

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InterDigital Inc. (NASDAQ: IDCC) has found support from its 200-day moving average. I believe the recent drop is normal considering the massive runs earlier in Aug and June. Although MACD is negative, Slow STO is near to reach oversold area. With a higher-than-14% short ratio, I believe this stock is a good candidate for speculate. Any good news would trigger short squeeze, making a huge run similar those IDCC previously had.

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Sirius XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI), I am confidence in this stock due to its low Earning ratio and other multiples comparing with its competitors. Technical-wise, as long as SIRI is trading above the middle of the B.Band, I keep my bullish in this Company with MACD, On Balance Volume and moving averages raising.

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Groupon Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN) has been in my watch list for a while when the saucer bottom is forming early this month. With the formation coming close to an end, I am still bullish to this stock. For a safe play, I believe GRPN, would reach $6 in a short future. However, it is arguable whether it will fill the gap. Bottom line is, I expect a pull back after GRPN reaching $6 and partial or all holdings should be sold and see how the stock performs.

Bad News today: Facebook and Zygna almost drop more than 9%. I think there is still a long way for both of them to proof the sustainability of their business models. FB and ZNGA are both very volatile stock. I don't see much firm trend among both of them. I would not even bother to long or short either of them.

From now on, I will analysis and comment on major indexes during the weekend. Please, 
Stay tuned.

Saturday, September 22, 2012

Sept 21: Important Economic Data this week

Extracted from http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/
DateTimeCurrencyEventImportanceActualForecastPreviousNotes
Tue
Sep 18
12:30Currency: usdUSD Current Account Balance (2Q)Medium-$117.4B-$125.0B-$133.6B
13:00Currency: usdUSD Net Long-term TIC Flows (JUL)Medium$67.8B$27.5B$9.3B
14:00Currency: usdUSD NAHB Housing Market Index (SEP)Medium403837
Wed
Sep 19
12:30Currency: usdUSD Housing Starts (AUG)Medium750K767K733K
12:30Currency: usdUSD Building Permits (AUG)Medium803K795K811K
14:00Currency: usdUSD Existing Home Sales (AUG)Medium4.82M4.56M4.47M
Thu
Sep 20
12:30Currency: usdUSD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 15)Medium382K375K385K
12:58Currency: usdUSD Markit US PMI Preliminary (SEP)Medium51.551.5
14:00Currency: usdUSD Philadelphia Fed. (SEP)Medium-1.9-4.5-7.1









Thursday, September 6, 2012

Sept 06: IDCC JPM UVXY INTC

The Goods of Today:

  • Major Indexes are at highest level since December 2007, back to pre-recession level
  • ADP says US Company added 201,000 workers in August
  • US ISM Non-Manufacturing index 53.7 vs 52.5 expected.


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InterDigital Inc. (NASDAQ: IDCC) today has cross $34 level with a pretty significant level of volume, closing at $35.67 (up 6.29%), higher than 200-day moving average. Today's move touches the upper B-band and widen the bands' distance again after the indicator showing a consolidation. Fundamentally, the Company has a portfolio of patents that might be useful and possible to be acquired by Apple or Samsung.

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J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) experience a huge appreciation today , along with other banking companies, due to ECB movement. I keep mentioning JPM particularly in the industry because it has low PE ratio and healthy revenues. Despite of the huge trading loss early in April, I like the attitude how CEO Jamie Dimon responds to the trading loss with a tone of accepting mistakes and problems existed, instead of blaming others. I am skeptical about Europe's bond-buying program, but JPM is definitely in my watch list.

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UVXY had been in my portfolio for a long while, not only because the economy is recovering and indexes are doing good, hence the volatility would be small. It is also because the contango relationship in spot and distant futures prices. Today's action makes UVXY touches the lower B-band again, giving us a sell signal. If you are expecting volatility to get smaller in the future, short UVXY, TVIX, VXX or similar ETN or Long XIV. One reason I like shorting VIX instead of Long a fund shorting the underlying futures is that there would be less short squeeze effect on the particular ETN, making it easier to predict the outcome.

For more, please read "So You Want to Trade Volatility: Understanding contango"at SeekingAlpha.com
Click here to Read

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Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC)
Today's action on Intel shows a rebounce from the lower band of the falling channel since May. There is still a distance until reaching the upper band. With a rising MACD and increasing volume. I believe INTC would be a good stock to hold.

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